Global Cup 2026 predictions
Independent, public analytics for the global football tournament hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico in summer 2026. Match probabilities, 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and transparent methodology.
Tournament-winner probabilities
Top 16 contenders, from 10,000 simulations of the Global Cup 2026.
Upcoming fixtures
Predicted outcome, expected goals and confidence.
Spain
Elo 2190
Belgium
Elo 1948
Spain narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.7%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%
Match details
Argentina
Elo 2156
Switzerland
Elo 1949
Argentina clear edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.0%
If it opens up: 3-1at 6.0%
Match details
Norway
Elo 1972
England
Elo 2076
England narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 2-2 / 0-1 · top exact 8.9%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.8%
Match detailsGroup projections
Projected standings averaged across all simulations.
Group A
- Mexico4.5 pts
- Czech Republic4.3 pts
- South Korea4.2 pts
- South Africa3.5 pts
Group J
- Argentina6.7 pts
- Austria3.7 pts
- Algeria3.6 pts
- Jordan2.7 pts
Group I
- France6.5 pts
- Norway4.3 pts
- Senegal3.9 pts
- Iraq2.1 pts
Group H
- Spain6.0 pts
- Uruguay5.2 pts
- Cape Verde3.2 pts
- Saudi Arabia2.3 pts
Group D
- Turkey4.8 pts
- United States4.5 pts
- Australia3.6 pts
- Paraguay3.5 pts
Group F
- Netherlands5.6 pts
- Japan4.2 pts
- Sweden3.4 pts
- Tunisia3.3 pts
Group E
- Germany5.6 pts
- Ivory Coast3.8 pts
- Curaçao3.6 pts
- Ecuador3.5 pts
Group G
- Belgium5.8 pts
- Egypt4.4 pts
- Iran4.1 pts
- New Zealand2.4 pts
Group B
- Switzerland5.7 pts
- Canada4.4 pts
- Bosnia & Herzegovina3.7 pts
- Qatar2.8 pts
Group L
- England6.0 pts
- Croatia4.9 pts
- Ghana3.1 pts
- Panama2.7 pts
Group C
- Brazil5.7 pts
- Scotland4.3 pts
- Morocco4.1 pts
- Haiti2.4 pts
Group K
- Portugal5.3 pts
- DR Congo5.1 pts
- Colombia4.2 pts
- Uzbekistan2.1 pts
Polymarket — prediction market sentiment
Public Polymarket prices (read-only). Treated as crowd sentiment, not a model input. We never trade, sign or place orders.
Polymarket connected, but no mapped football market available yet. Will populate on the next hourly refresh.
About this tournament page
CupCastLab is independent and unaffiliated with any official football body. All tournament naming on this page is descriptive ("Global Cup 2026", "global football tournament 2026"); no protected marks are claimed or implied.
All probabilities are model-derived and probabilistic — not guarantees. Where market data is shown, it is used purely for calibration. This page contains no betting links.