Brazil

CONMEBOL · Group C

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Brazil

Elo 2040 · 10.1% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo2040

Base rating92

Attack92

Midfield88

Defense84

Goalkeeper86

Set pieces80

Penalties82

Form84

Volatility45

Squad depth88

Injury status86

Data quality94

Ratings

Analyst brief — Brazil going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Mixed — strong against direct opponents in qualifiers, more vulnerable when faced with sustained pressure. Coaching upheaval through the cycle hurt continuity.

Style

Verticality and 1v1 attackers. Less of the systemic dominance of 2022; more reliant on individual moments from Vinícius, Rodrygo, Estêvão.

Squad

Talisca-deep attack; midfield depending on the form of Bruno Guimarães + a Casemiro-replacement search. Defence: Marquinhos still the linchpin.

Tournament ceiling

Final. Talent ceiling matches anyone but the system has not been as reliable as Argentina's.

Biggest risk

Knockout-round set-piece defending and the question of who controls midfield against an organized European side.

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group C

Sat, Jun 13 · 22:00 UTC

54% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Morocco

Elo 1901

BRA 54%Draw 19%MAR 27%

Brazil narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.1%

xG 1.86 – 1.25BTTS 58%·O2.5 60%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.0%

Match details

Group C

Fri, Jun 19 · 00:30 UTC

62% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Haiti

Elo 1517

BRA 70%Draw 15%HAI 15%

Brazil dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 1-0 / 2-1 · top exact 10.2%

xG 2.35 – 0.95BTTS 54%·O2.5 64%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.0%

Match details

Group C

Wed, Jun 24 · 22:00 UTC

55% conf

Scotland

Elo 1750

Brazil

Elo 1993

SCO 29%Draw 19%BRA 52%

Brazil narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 9.6%

xG 1.31 – 1.86BTTS 60%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.2%

Match details

Group X

Mon, Jun 29 · 17:00 UTC

58% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Japan

Elo 1888

BRA 61%Draw 17%JPN 22%

Brazil clear edge

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%

xG 2.12 – 1.15BTTS 58%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 3-1at 6.9%

Match details

Group X

Sun, Jul 5 · 20:00 UTC

57% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Norway

Elo 1972

BRA 60%Draw 17%NOR 24%

Brazil clear edge

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 3-1 / 1-0 · top exact 9.0%

xG 2.38 – 1.44BTTS 68%·O2.5 73%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.1%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing72

Possession pref.78

Directness62

High line60

Set-piece threat78

Slug · brazil