Tournament simulator
10,000 simulated tournaments. Group stage, knockouts, extra time and penalty shootouts all modelled.
Top 10 tournament-winner probabilities
Model oracle-v1.0.0
Full leaderboard
- #1ArgentinaQF 53%SF 33%Final 22%13.61%
- #2FranceQF 48%SF 31%Final 20%13.36%
- #3BrazilQF 43%SF 28%Final 17%10.13%
- #4SpainQF 35%SF 21%Final 13%7.16%
- #5EnglandQF 34%SF 20%Final 12%6.57%
- #6GermanyQF 37%SF 21%Final 11%5.74%
- #7PortugalQF 33%SF 20%Final 11%5.43%
- #8DR CongoQF 29%SF 17%Final 9%4.47%
- #9NetherlandsQF 26%SF 14%Final 7%3.59%
- #10UruguayQF 25%SF 13%Final 7%3.02%
Probabilities are computed from the persisted SimulationRun. The hourly job re-runs at the top of each hour with a small randomised delay.
These odds come from a 10,000-iteration Monte-Carlo simulation using live team ratings and historical data, re-run hourly. It is a mathematical model — not a live feed or a betting service.