CupCastLab
partial live

Teams

All 48 nations — sorted by tournament-winning probability. Each tile links to the team's analyst brief, fixture list and round-by-round chart.

Every nation at the Global Cup 2026 ranked by live Elo rating, recent form and tournament-winning probability, refreshed after each result.

#1 · CONMEBOL

Argentina

Elo2156
Form90
Win cup
13.61%
QF 53%SF 33%F 22%

#2 · UEFA

France

Elo2163
Form84
Win cup
13.36%
QF 48%SF 31%F 20%

#3 · CONMEBOL

Brazil

Elo1993
Form84
Win cup
10.13%
QF 43%SF 28%F 17%

#4 · UEFA

Spain

Elo2190
Form86
Win cup
7.16%
QF 35%SF 21%F 13%

#5 · UEFA

England

Elo2076
Form82
Win cup
6.57%
QF 34%SF 20%F 12%

#6 · UEFA

Germany

Elo1907
Form80
Win cup
5.74%
QF 37%SF 21%F 11%

#7 · UEFA

Portugal

Elo1995
Form84
Win cup
5.43%
QF 33%SF 20%F 11%

#8 · CAF

DR Congo

Elo1704
Form80
Win cup
4.47%
QF 29%SF 17%F 9%

#9 · UEFA

Netherlands

Elo1971
Form80
Win cup
3.59%
QF 26%SF 14%F 7%

#10 · CONMEBOL

Uruguay

Elo1841
Form80
Win cup
3.02%
QF 25%SF 13%F 7%

#11 · UEFA

Belgium

Elo1948
Form76
Win cup
2.78%
QF 28%SF 13%F 6%

#12 · UEFA

Scotland

Elo1750
Form80
Win cup
2.43%
QF 24%SF 13%F 6%

#13 · UEFA

Switzerland

Elo1949
Form78
Win cup
2.31%
QF 21%SF 10%F 5%

#14 · UEFA

Croatia

Elo1881
Form80
Win cup
2.26%
QF 21%SF 10%F 5%

#15 · CAF

Morocco

Elo1901
Form80
Win cup
2.01%
QF 21%SF 11%F 5%

#16 · CONMEBOL

Colombia

Elo2003
Form82
Win cup
1.87%
QF 19%SF 9%F 4%

#17 · UEFA

Norway

Elo1972
Form80
Win cup
1.29%
QF 19%SF 9%F 4%

#18 · UEFA

Turkey

Elo1852
Form80
Win cup
1.14%
QF 16%SF 8%F 3%

#19 · CAF

Senegal

Elo1816
Form78
Win cup
1.11%
QF 16%SF 7%F 3%

#20 · CONCACAF

Mexico

Host
Elo1913
Form76
Win cup
0.98%
QF 16%SF 7%F 3%

#21 · CONCACAF

United States

Host
Elo1747
Form76
Win cup
0.86%
QF 14%SF 6%F 2%

#22 · UEFA

Czech Republic

Elo1680
Form76
Win cup
0.86%
QF 16%SF 6%F 2%

#23 · AFC

Japan

Elo1888
Form80
Win cup
0.85%
QF 14%SF 6%F 2%

#24 · UEFA

Austria

Elo1821
Form72
Win cup
0.62%
QF 14%SF 5%F 2%

#25 · AFC

South Korea

Elo1723
Form78
Win cup
0.59%
QF 13%SF 5%F 2%

#26 · CAF

Ivory Coast

Elo1727
Form76
Win cup
0.58%
QF 13%SF 5%F 2%

#27 · CONCACAF

Curaçao

Elo1438
Form72
Win cup
0.47%
QF 12%SF 4%F 1%

#28 · CONMEBOL

Ecuador

Elo1871
Form74
Win cup
0.39%
QF 11%SF 4%F 1%

#29 · CAF

Egypt

Elo1742
Form72
Win cup
0.38%
QF 12%SF 4%F 1%

#30 · CAF

Algeria

Elo1756
Form74
Win cup
0.36%
QF 12%SF 4%F 1%

#31 · CONCACAF

Canada

Host
Elo1729
Form74
Win cup
0.34%
QF 10%SF 4%F 1%

#32 · AFC

Iran

Elo1764
Form70
Win cup
0.29%
QF 10%SF 3%F 1%

#33 · CAF

South Africa

Elo1560
Form74
Win cup
0.27%
QF 8%SF 3%F 1%

#34 · AFC

Australia

Elo1795
Form72
Win cup
0.26%
QF 7%SF 3%F 1%

#35 · UEFA

Sweden

Elo1731
Form72
Win cup
0.26%
QF 7%SF 2%F 1%

#36 · CAF

Tunisia

Elo1562
Form70
Win cup
0.20%
QF 7%SF 3%F 1%

#37 · CAF

Ghana

Elo1570
Form70
Win cup
0.18%
QF 6%SF 2%F 1%

#38 · CONMEBOL

Paraguay

Elo1814
Form70
Win cup
0.17%
QF 7%SF 3%F 1%

#39 · CONCACAF

Panama

Elo1658
Form68
Win cup
0.15%
QF 5%SF 2%F 0%

#40 · CONCACAF

Haiti

Elo1517
Form70
Win cup
0.15%
QF 5%SF 2%F 1%

#41 · UEFA

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Elo1605
Form68
Win cup
0.12%
QF 7%SF 2%F 1%

#42 · CAF

Cape Verde

Elo1619
Form68
Win cup
0.12%
QF 7%SF 2%F 1%

#43 · AFC

Jordan

Elo1628
Form68
Win cup
0.09%
QF 6%SF 2%F 0%

#44 · AFC

Iraq

Elo1561
Form68
Win cup
0.07%
QF 3%SF 1%F 0%

#45 · AFC

Uzbekistan

Elo1631
Form70
Win cup
0.05%
QF 3%SF 1%F 0%

#46 · AFC

Saudi Arabia

Elo1596
Form66
Win cup
0.03%
QF 2%SF 1%F 0%

#47 · AFC

Qatar

Elo1411
Form66
Win cup
0.02%
QF 3%SF 1%F 0%

#48 · OFC

New Zealand

Elo1534
Form64
Win cup
0.01%
QF 2%SF 0%F 0%

Probabilities from a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation. Live Elo overlaid from eloratings.net.