Group D

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Turkey	4.9	1.4	0.7	0.9	4.8	3.7	1.1	35.8	73.9
2	United States	4.5	1.3	0.8	1.0	4.6	3.9	0.6	30.9	69.8
3	Australia	3.6	0.9	0.8	1.3	3.5	4.3	-0.8	17.1	53.7
4	Paraguay	3.5	0.9	0.8	1.3	3.6	4.5	-0.9	16.2	52.6

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group D

Sat, Jun 13 · 04:00 UTC

49% conf

Australia

Elo 1795

Turkey

Elo 1852

AUS 29%Draw 20%TUR 50%

Turkey narrow edge

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.16 – 1.64BTTS 53%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.5%

Match details

Group D

Fri, Jun 19 · 03:00 UTC

48% conf

Turkey

Elo 1852

Paraguay

Elo 1814

TUR 51%Draw 20%PAR 30%

Turkey narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%

xG 1.73 – 1.25BTTS 57%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%

Match details

Group D

Thu, Jun 25 · 02:00 UTC

41% conf

Paraguay

Elo 1814

Australia

Elo 1795

PAR 40%Draw 22%AUS 39%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 12.1%

xG 1.30 – 1.28BTTS 50%·O2.5 48%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.2%

Match details

Group D

Fri, Jun 12 · 01:00 UTC

45% conf

United States

Elo 1747

Paraguay

Elo 1814

USA 46%Draw 21%PAR 33%

Paraguay live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1 · top exact 11.2%

xG 1.57 – 1.28BTTS 55%·O2.5 54%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.8%

Match details

Group D

Fri, Jun 19 · 19:00 UTC

47% conf

United States

Elo 1747

Australia

Elo 1795

USA 47%Draw 21%AUS 33%

Australia live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.6%

xG 1.55 – 1.25BTTS 54%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.7%

Match details

Group D

Thu, Jun 25 · 02:00 UTC

48% conf

Turkey

Elo 1852

United States

Elo 1747

TUR 45%Draw 20%USA 35%

United States live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1 · top exact 9.8%

xG 1.63 – 1.41BTTS 59%·O2.5 58%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%

Match details