Group L

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	England	6.0	1.8	0.6	0.6	6.3	3.4	2.9	54.4	87.8
2	Croatia	4.8	1.4	0.7	0.9	4.9	3.8	1.0	29.3	75.9
3	Ghana	3.1	0.8	0.7	1.5	3.6	5.3	-1.7	9.8	47.4
4	Panama	2.7	0.7	0.7	1.6	3.2	5.5	-2.3	6.5	38.9

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group L

Wed, Jun 17 · 20:00 UTC

52% conf

England

Elo 2076

Croatia

Elo 1881

ENG 49%Draw 19%CRO 32%

Croatia live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.4%

xG 1.78 – 1.38BTTS 60%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.4%

Match details

Group L

Wed, Jun 17 · 23:00 UTC

41% conf

Ghana

Elo 1570

Panama

Elo 1658

GHA 43%Draw 21%PAN 36%

Panama live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.1%

xG 1.48 – 1.32BTTS 55%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.8%

Match details

Group L

Tue, Jun 23 · 20:00 UTC

58% conf

England

Elo 2076

Ghana

Elo 1570

ENG 65%Draw 16%GHA 19%

England clear edge

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%

xG 2.26 – 1.10BTTS 58%·O2.5 65%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.3%

Match details

Group L

Tue, Jun 23 · 23:00 UTC

55% conf

Panama

Elo 1658

Croatia

Elo 1881

PAN 22%Draw 19%CRO 59%

Croatia clear edge

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.2% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.03 – 1.88BTTS 53%·O2.5 56%

If it opens up: 1-3at 6.2%

Match details

Group L

Sat, Jun 27 · 21:00 UTC

60% conf

Panama

Elo 1658

England

Elo 2076

PAN 17%Draw 16%ENG 67%

England dominant

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2 · top exact 10.9%

xG 0.96 – 2.21BTTS 53%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 0-3at 7.6%

Match details

Group L

Sat, Jun 27 · 21:00 UTC

53% conf

Croatia

Elo 1881

Ghana

Elo 1570

CRO 56%Draw 19%GHA 25%

Croatia clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.7%

xG 1.81 – 1.11BTTS 54%·O2.5 56%

If it opens up: 3-1at 5.9%

Match details