Group B
Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.
Projected standings
Averaged across all simulations.
| # | Team | Pts | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Group W% | Adv % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 50.4 | 84.8 |
| 2 | Canada | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 25.3 | 68.2 |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | -0.6 | 15.8 | 56.7 |
| 4 | Qatar | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.1 | -2.0 | 8.6 | 40.3 |
Scenario explorer
Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.
Canada
Elo 1729
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Elo 1605
Bosnia & Herzegovina live
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.5%
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.7%
Match details
Qatar
Elo 1411
Switzerland
Elo 1949
Switzerland dominant
Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.8% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 0-3at 7.5%
Match detailsSwitzerland
Elo 1949
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Elo 1605
Switzerland clear edge
Projected score 1-0 · top exact 14.3%
If it opens up: 3-0at 5.5%
Match detailsCanada
Elo 1729
Qatar
Elo 1411
Canada clear edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%
If it opens up: 3-1at 6.0%
Match detailsSwitzerland
Elo 1949
Canada
Elo 1729
Switzerland narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.3%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.0%
Match detailsBosnia & Herzegovina
Elo 1605
Qatar
Elo 1411
Qatar live
Most likely exact 1-0 at 13.8% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 2-2at 4.9%
Match details