Group K

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Portugal	5.4	1.6	0.7	0.8	5.6	3.7	2.0	41.0	81.2
2	DR Congo	5.1	1.5	0.7	0.8	5.0	3.6	1.4	34.0	77.6
3	Colombia	4.2	1.2	0.7	1.2	4.5	4.5	0.0	20.5	64.7
4	Uzbekistan	2.1	0.5	0.6	1.9	2.8	6.2	-3.4	4.5	26.5

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group K

Wed, Jun 17 · 17:00 UTC

50% conf

Portugal

Elo 1995

DR Congo

Elo 1704

POR 42%Draw 20%COD 38%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.0%

xG 1.52 – 1.43BTTS 57%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.2%

Match details

Group K

Wed, Jun 17 · 02:00 UTC

54% conf

Uzbekistan

Elo 1631

Colombia

Elo 2003

UZB 22%Draw 18%COL 61%

Colombia clear edge

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 0-2 · top exact 10.9%

xG 1.08 – 2.01BTTS 55%·O2.5 60%

If it opens up: 1-3at 6.6%

Match details

Group K

Tue, Jun 23 · 17:00 UTC

61% conf

Portugal

Elo 1995

Uzbekistan

Elo 1631

POR 70%Draw 15%UZB 15%

Portugal dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 1-0 / 2-1 · top exact 10.1%

xG 2.39 – 0.96BTTS 54%·O2.5 65%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.0%

Match details

Group K

Tue, Jun 23 · 02:00 UTC

50% conf

Colombia

Elo 2003

DR Congo

Elo 1704

COL 32%Draw 20%COD 48%

Colombia live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 10.7%

xG 1.30 – 1.64BTTS 57%·O2.5 56%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.0%

Match details

Group K

Sat, Jun 27 · 23:30 UTC

51% conf

Colombia

Elo 2003

Portugal

Elo 1995

COL 30%Draw 19%POR 51%

Portugal narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.40 – 1.89BTTS 62%·O2.5 64%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.5%

Match details

Group K

Sat, Jun 27 · 23:30 UTC

59% conf

DR Congo

Elo 1704

Uzbekistan

Elo 1631

COD 67%Draw 17%UZB 16%

DR Congo dominant

Most likely exact 1-0 at 13.4% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 2.01 – 0.83BTTS 47%·O2.5 54%

If it opens up: 3-0at 7.9%

Match details