Group G

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Belgium	5.8	1.7	0.6	0.6	5.8	3.2	2.6	52.0	86.1
2	Egypt	4.3	1.2	0.7	1.1	4.5	4.2	0.2	23.2	68.1
3	Iran	4.1	1.1	0.8	1.1	3.9	4.0	-0.1	19.3	63.8
4	New Zealand	2.4	0.6	0.7	1.8	2.8	5.6	-2.8	5.5	32.0

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group G

Mon, Jun 15 · 19:00 UTC

50% conf

Belgium

Elo 1948

Egypt

Elo 1742

BEL 53%Draw 19%EGY 29%

Belgium narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 1-1 · top exact 9.5%

xG 1.90 – 1.34BTTS 61%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%

Match details

Group G

Mon, Jun 15 · 01:00 UTC

46% conf

Iran

Elo 1764

New Zealand

Elo 1534

IRN 54%Draw 21%NZL 25%

Iran narrow edge

Most likely exact 1-0 at 15.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.56 – 0.93BTTS 46%·O2.5 46%

If it opens up: 3-0at 5.2%

Match details

Group G

Sun, Jun 21 · 19:00 UTC

50% conf

Belgium

Elo 1948

Iran

Elo 1764

BEL 52%Draw 20%IRN 27%

Belgium narrow edge

Most likely exact 1-0 at 12.3% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.67 – 1.12BTTS 53%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.4%

Match details

Group G

Sun, Jun 21 · 01:00 UTC

48% conf

New Zealand

Elo 1534

Egypt

Elo 1742

NZL 23%Draw 19%EGY 58%

Egypt clear edge

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 0-2 · top exact 11.6%

xG 1.08 – 1.89BTTS 54%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 1-3at 6.3%

Match details

Group G

Fri, Jun 26 · 03:00 UTC

41% conf

Egypt

Elo 1742

Iran

Elo 1764

EGY 42%Draw 21%IRN 37%

Iran live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.5%

xG 1.42 – 1.31BTTS 53%·O2.5 51%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.6%

Match details

Group G

Fri, Jun 26 · 03:00 UTC

57% conf

New Zealand

Elo 1534

Belgium

Elo 1948

NZL 15%Draw 16%BEL 69%

Belgium dominant

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 0.87 – 2.17BTTS 50%·O2.5 59%

If it opens up: 0-3at 8.2%

Match details