Group C

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Brazil	5.7	1.7	0.6	0.7	5.9	3.4	2.5	50.3	85.0
2	Scotland	4.4	1.2	0.7	1.1	4.3	4.0	0.3	23.8	68.4
3	Morocco	4.1	1.1	0.7	1.1	4.0	4.1	-0.1	20.0	64.2
4	Haiti	2.4	0.6	0.7	1.7	2.8	5.6	-2.7	5.8	32.4

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group C

Sat, Jun 13 · 22:00 UTC

54% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Morocco

Elo 1901

BRA 54%Draw 19%MAR 27%

Brazil narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.1%

xG 1.86 – 1.25BTTS 58%·O2.5 60%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.0%

Match details

Group C

Sat, Jun 13 · 01:00 UTC

54% conf

Haiti

Elo 1517

Scotland

Elo 1750

HAI 24%Draw 20%SCO 57%

Scotland clear edge

Projected score 0-1 · top exact 13.2%

xG 1.00 – 1.74BTTS 50%·O2.5 52%

If it opens up: 1-3at 5.7%

Match details

Group C

Fri, Jun 19 · 22:00 UTC

45% conf

Scotland

Elo 1750

Morocco

Elo 1901

SCO 42%Draw 21%MAR 37%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.7%

xG 1.40 – 1.29BTTS 52%·O2.5 50%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.5%

Match details

Group C

Fri, Jun 19 · 00:30 UTC

62% conf

Brazil

Elo 1993

Haiti

Elo 1517

BRA 70%Draw 15%HAI 15%

Brazil dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 1-0 / 2-1 · top exact 10.2%

xG 2.35 – 0.95BTTS 54%·O2.5 64%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.0%

Match details

Group C

Wed, Jun 24 · 22:00 UTC

55% conf

Scotland

Elo 1750

Brazil

Elo 1993

SCO 29%Draw 19%BRA 52%

Brazil narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 9.6%

xG 1.31 – 1.86BTTS 60%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.2%

Match details

Group C

Wed, Jun 24 · 22:00 UTC

51% conf

Morocco

Elo 1901

Haiti

Elo 1517

MAR 54%Draw 20%HAI 26%

Morocco narrow edge

Most likely exact 1-0 at 13.7% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.63 – 1.01BTTS 49%·O2.5 49%

If it opens up: 3-1at 5.2%

Match details