Group F

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Netherlands	5.6	1.6	0.7	0.7	5.4	3.2	2.2	48.8	83.2
2	Japan	4.3	1.2	0.8	1.1	4.2	3.9	0.2	24.6	66.6
3	Sweden	3.3	0.9	0.8	1.4	3.4	4.6	-1.2	13.7	50.5
4	Tunisia	3.3	0.8	0.8	1.4	3.3	4.5	-1.2	13.0	49.7

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group F

Sun, Jun 14 · 20:00 UTC

53% conf

Netherlands

Elo 1971

Japan

Elo 1888

NED 51%Draw 20%JPN 29%

Netherlands narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%

xG 1.74 – 1.24BTTS 57%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%

Match details

Group F

Sun, Jun 14 · 02:00 UTC

39% conf

Sweden

Elo 1731

Tunisia

Elo 1562

SWE 39%Draw 22%TUN 39%

Very balanced

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 12.2%

xG 1.28 – 1.28BTTS 50%·O2.5 47%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.2%

Match details

Group F

Sat, Jun 20 · 17:00 UTC

56% conf

Netherlands

Elo 1971

Sweden

Elo 1731

NED 60%Draw 18%SWE 22%

Netherlands clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 11.4%

xG 1.96 – 1.06BTTS 54%·O2.5 58%

If it opens up: 3-1at 6.5%

Match details

Group F

Sat, Jun 20 · 04:00 UTC

48% conf

Tunisia

Elo 1562

Japan

Elo 1888

TUN 32%Draw 21%JPN 47%

Tunisia live

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.9% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.15 – 1.47BTTS 50%·O2.5 49%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.2%

Match details

Group F

Thu, Jun 25 · 23:00 UTC

47% conf

Japan

Elo 1888

Sweden

Elo 1731

JPN 48%Draw 21%SWE 31%

Sweden live

Most likely exact 1-0 at 12.1% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.56 – 1.19BTTS 53%·O2.5 52%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.5%

Match details

Group F

Thu, Jun 25 · 23:00 UTC

56% conf

Tunisia

Elo 1562

Netherlands

Elo 1971

TUN 22%Draw 19%NED 59%

Netherlands clear edge

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.7% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.00 – 1.84BTTS 51%·O2.5 54%

If it opens up: 0-3at 6.1%

Match details