England
UEFA · Group L
England
Elo 2000 · 6.6% Champion
Tournament probabilities
Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.
Ratings
Ratings
Analyst brief — England going into Global Cup 2026
Form
Mixed — strong qualifying (as expected), but recent friendlies have shown the same brittleness Southgate-era exhibited.
Style
Tuchel-era press is more aggressive than Southgate; high turnover, Bellingham as the link between lines.
Squad
Bellingham, Saka, Foden, Palmer — front-four is elite. Kane still finishes. Defence depends on Stones' fitness.
Tournament ceiling
Final. Squad arguably as good as France's.
Biggest risk
Tournament-mentality — England have consistently failed in tight knockout games. Tuchel must change that pattern.
Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.
Group stage fixtures
England
Elo 2076
Croatia
Elo 1881
Croatia live
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.4%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.4%
Match detailsEngland
Elo 2076
Ghana
Elo 1570
England clear edge
Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%
If it opens up: 3-1at 7.3%
Match details
Panama
Elo 1658
England
Elo 2076
England dominant
Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2 · top exact 10.9%
If it opens up: 0-3at 7.6%
Match detailsEngland
Elo 2076
DR Congo
Elo 1704
DR Congo live
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.2%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.1%
Match details
Mexico
Elo 1913
England
Elo 2076
England narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.6%
If it opens up: 1-3at 6.2%
Match details
Norway
Elo 1972
England
Elo 2076
England narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 2-2 / 0-1 · top exact 8.9%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.8%
Match details