Group H

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	Spain	6.0	1.8	0.6	0.6	6.4	3.3	3.1	52.7	88.9
2	Uruguay	5.2	1.5	0.7	0.8	5.4	3.8	1.6	33.5	80.4
3	Cape Verde	3.2	0.9	0.7	1.5	3.7	5.3	-1.5	9.5	49.7
4	Saudi Arabia	2.3	0.6	0.6	1.8	3.0	6.2	-3.2	4.2	31.0

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group H

Mon, Jun 15 · 16:00 UTC

61% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Cape Verde

Elo 1619

ESP 66%Draw 16%CPV 18%

Spain dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%

xG 2.29 – 1.06BTTS 57%·O2.5 65%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.5%

Match details

Group H

Mon, Jun 15 · 22:00 UTC

57% conf

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1596

Uruguay

Elo 1841

KSA 17%Draw 16%URU 68%

Uruguay dominant

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2 · top exact 10.4%

xG 0.98 – 2.25BTTS 54%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 0-3at 7.5%

Match details

Group H

Sun, Jun 21 · 16:00 UTC

63% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1596

ESP 75%Draw 13%KSA 12%

Spain dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 2-1 / 1-0 · top exact 10.1%

xG 2.60 – 0.91BTTS 54%·O2.5 68%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.7%

Match details

Group H

Sun, Jun 21 · 22:00 UTC

53% conf

Uruguay

Elo 1841

Cape Verde

Elo 1619

URU 59%Draw 18%CPV 23%

Uruguay clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 10.3%

xG 2.01 – 1.15BTTS 57%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 3-1at 6.6%

Match details

Group H

Fri, Jun 26 · 00:00 UTC

42% conf

Cape Verde

Elo 1619

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1596

CPV 48%Draw 20%KSA 31%

Saudi Arabia live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1 · top exact 11.5%

xG 1.61 – 1.23BTTS 55%·O2.5 54%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.7%

Match details

Group H

Fri, Jun 26 · 00:00 UTC

53% conf

Uruguay

Elo 1841

Spain

Elo 2190

URU 33%Draw 19%ESP 48%

Uruguay live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.41 – 1.75BTTS 61%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.5%

Match details