France

UEFA · Group I

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France

Elo 2050 · 12.6% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo2050

Base rating92

Attack92

Midfield88

Defense88

Goalkeeper88

Set pieces82

Penalties84

Form84

Volatility40

Squad depth92

Injury status86

Data quality95

Ratings

Analyst brief — France going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Strong Euro 2024 (final) and an excellent qualifying cycle. Deschamps refreshed the squad without losing structure.

Style

Pragmatic 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 with elite individual talent across every position. Defensive base + counter precision.

Squad

Mbappé peak years; Tchouaméni-Camavinga-Koné midfield; Saliba & Upamecano the new core defence. Maignan an elite goalkeeper.

Tournament ceiling

Winning the trophy. Probably the deepest squad in the tournament.

Biggest risk

Tactical predictability — sides that sit deep and force them to break down a low block have caused them problems (Argentina 2022).

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group I

Tue, Jun 16 · 19:00 UTC

59% conf

France

Elo 2163

Senegal

Elo 1816

FRA 64%Draw 17%SEN 20%

France clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 10.0%

xG 2.17 – 1.09BTTS 57%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.1%

Match details

Group I

Mon, Jun 22 · 21:00 UTC

66% conf

France

Elo 2163

Iraq

Elo 1561

FRA 79%Draw 12%IRQ 10%

France dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 3-0 / 1-0 · top exact 11.4%

xG 2.66 – 0.77BTTS 49%·O2.5 67%

If it opens up: 3-0at 10.1%

Match details

Group I

Fri, Jun 26 · 19:00 UTC

59% conf

Norway

Elo 1972

France

Elo 2163

NOR 22%Draw 16%FRA 61%

France clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-3 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.31 – 2.32BTTS 64%·O2.5 70%

If it opens up: 1-3at 7.2%

Match details

Group X

Tue, Jun 30 · 21:00 UTC

63% conf

France

Elo 2163

Sweden

Elo 1731

FRA 71%Draw 15%SWE 14%

France dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 1-0 / 2-1 · top exact 10.8%

xG 2.34 – 0.89BTTS 52%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.4%

Match details

Group X

Sat, Jul 4 · 21:00 UTC

63% conf

Paraguay

Elo 1814

France

Elo 2163

PAR 14%Draw 15%FRA 71%

France dominant

Scoreline cluster 0-2 / 0-1 / 1-2 · top exact 10.7%

xG 0.90 – 2.33BTTS 52%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 0-3at 8.3%

Match details

Group X

Thu, Jul 9 · 20:00 UTC

57% conf

France

Elo 2163

Morocco

Elo 1901

FRA 57%Draw 19%MAR 24%

France clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 11.6%

xG 1.86 – 1.10BTTS 54%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 3-1at 6.1%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing68

Possession pref.70

Directness70

High line65

Set-piece threat80

Slug · france