Japan
AFC · Group F
Japan
Elo 1820 · 0.7% Champion
Tournament probabilities
Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.
Ratings
Ratings
Analyst brief — Japan going into Global Cup 2026
Form
Exceptional cycle — most goals in AFC qualifying, depth across the squad, Moriyasu has settled on a 3-4-2-1 or 4-2-3-1 hybrid.
Style
Possession-confident, fast in transition; press up the pitch with Mitoma & Ito wide.
Squad
Kubo the orchestrator; Mitoma the wide threat; Itakura & Tomiyasu the back; Endo the midfield base.
Tournament ceiling
Quarter-final realistic; semi possible with a good draw.
Biggest risk
Centre-forward production — they create chances but the #9s (Ueda, Furuhashi) are not yet elite finishers.
Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.
Group stage fixtures
Netherlands
Elo 1971
Japan
Elo 1888
Netherlands narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%
Match details
Tunisia
Elo 1562
Japan
Elo 1888
Tunisia live
Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.9% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.2%
Match detailsJapan
Elo 1888
Sweden
Elo 1731
Sweden live
Most likely exact 1-0 at 12.1% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.5%
Match details
Brazil
Elo 1993
Japan
Elo 1888
Brazil clear edge
Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%
If it opens up: 3-1at 6.9%
Match details