Haiti vs Scotland
Group C · Saturday, June 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC · Boston (Foxborough)
The model's read
The model makes Scotland strong favourites at 63%, leaving 15% for Haiti and 21% for the draw. Goals project around 1.0–1.7 (both teams to score 50%, over 2.5 52%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Scotland. Confidence sits at 54/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Haiti win
15.3%
Draw
21.3%
Scotland win
63.3%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.74
Projected score
0-1
top exact 0-1 · 13.2%
Confidence
54/100
Result lean
Scotland clear edge
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
1-3 at 5.7% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 13.2% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
35/100
Data quality
84/100
Uncertainty band
43 – 70%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Haiti vs Scotland.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:00:59 UTC.
Final (blended) home
15.3%
Final draw
21.3%
Final away
63.3%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market44 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental13 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
76/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
80/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (31.4 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (31.2 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (23.4 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Haiti win
5.4%
Draw
30.0%
Scotland win
64.5%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
47/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Scotland
30 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
50.1%
Over 1.5
73.9%
Over 2.5
51.6%
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Market intelligence
Model probability
15.3%
Market probability
13.9%
Gap: +9.7 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 44 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Scotland 57% to win, 23% for Haiti, 20% draw. Expected goals: Scotland 1.74 vs Haiti 1.00. Projected scoreline 0-1 (top exact at 13.2%). Goal environment moderate (BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 52%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 54/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.