Morocco vs Haiti
Group C · Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 22:00 UTC · Atlanta
The model's read
The model makes Morocco strong favourites at 66%, leaving 15% for Haiti and 20% for the draw. Goals project around 1.6–1.0 (both teams to score 49%, over 2.5 49%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Morocco. Confidence sits at 51/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Morocco win
65.6%
Draw
19.7%
Haiti win
14.7%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.01
Projected score
1-0
top exact 1-0 · 13.7%
Confidence
51/100
Result lean
Morocco dominant
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 5.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 13.7% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
38/100
Data quality
80/100
Uncertainty band
40 – 68%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Morocco vs Haiti.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:00 UTC.
Final (blended) home
65.6%
Final draw
19.7%
Final away
14.7%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market35 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental28 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
90/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (42.3 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (37.3 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (20.6 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Morocco win
70.7%
Draw
26.0%
Haiti win
3.3%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
56/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Morocco
46 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
49.2%
Over 1.5
72.0%
Over 2.5
49.3%
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Market intelligence
Model probability
65.6%
Market probability
75.7%
Gap: -21.7 percentage points.
Market confidence: 93/100 across 35 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Morocco 54% to win, 26% for Haiti, 20% draw. Expected goals: Morocco 1.63 vs Haiti 1.01. Most likely exact score is 1-0 at 13.7%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 49%). Likely one-goal game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 51/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model is slightly more cautious than the market.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.