Scotland vs Brazil
Group C · Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 22:00 UTC · Miami (Miami Gardens)
The model's read
The model makes Brazil strong favourites at 60%, leaving 19% for Scotland and 21% for the draw. Goals project around 1.3–1.9 in an open game (both teams to score 60%, over 2.5 61%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Brazil. Confidence sits at 55/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Scotland win
18.8%
Draw
21.1%
Brazil win
60.1%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.86
Scoreline cluster
0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1
top exact 0-1 · 9.6%
Confidence
55/100
Result lean
Brazil clear edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 60% and Over 2.5 61% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
41/100
Data quality
92/100
Uncertainty band
39 – 65%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Scotland vs Brazil.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:00 UTC.
Final (blended) home
18.8%
Final draw
21.1%
Final away
60.1%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market33 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel43 signals
- fundamental35 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
74/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
83/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (34.0 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (18.9 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Scotland win
6.4%
Draw
26.2%
Brazil win
67.3%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
51/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Scotland
30 articles / 14d
Brazil
13 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
59.9%
Over 1.5
80.7%
Over 2.5
61.5%
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Market intelligence
Model probability
18.8%
Market probability
12.1%
Gap: +16.8 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 33 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Brazil 52% to win, 29% for Scotland, 19% draw. Expected goals: Brazil 1.86 vs Scotland 1.31. Scoreline cluster: 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1. Top exact 0-1 only 9.6%. Goal environment open (BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 61%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 55/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
Scotland's aggressive press is well-suited to disrupt Brazil's build-up.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model is slightly more bullish than the market.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.