Spain

UEFA · Group H

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Spain

Elo 2020 · 7.2% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo2020

Base rating90

Attack88

Midfield90

Defense84

Goalkeeper84

Set pieces78

Penalties80

Form86

Volatility42

Squad depth86

Injury status86

Data quality94

Ratings

Analyst brief — Spain going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Euro 2024 champions. De la Fuente has built a clear, repeatable system around the youth pipeline.

Style

High-possession, positional 4-3-3 with Yamal/Williams stretching the width and the midfield pinning opponents.

Squad

Yamal at 18 is already one of the best players in the world; Pedri & Rodri the pillars; Cucurella & Carvajal (or replacement) provide width.

Tournament ceiling

Winning the trophy. The structure travels.

Biggest risk

Centre-forward — Morata era ending and the next-gen (Ayoze, Ferran) hasn't been as productive at international level.

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group H

Mon, Jun 15 · 16:00 UTC

61% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Cape Verde

Elo 1619

ESP 66%Draw 16%CPV 18%

Spain dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.8%

xG 2.29 – 1.06BTTS 57%·O2.5 65%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.5%

Match details

Group H

Sun, Jun 21 · 16:00 UTC

63% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1596

ESP 75%Draw 13%KSA 12%

Spain dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 2-1 / 1-0 · top exact 10.1%

xG 2.60 – 0.91BTTS 54%·O2.5 68%

If it opens up: 3-0at 8.7%

Match details

Group H

Fri, Jun 26 · 00:00 UTC

53% conf

Uruguay

Elo 1841

Spain

Elo 2190

URU 33%Draw 19%ESP 48%

Uruguay live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.41 – 1.75BTTS 61%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.5%

Match details

Group X

Thu, Jul 2 · 19:00 UTC

60% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Austria

Elo 1821

ESP 62%Draw 16%AUT 21%

Spain clear edge

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0 · top exact 9.4%

xG 2.33 – 1.28BTTS 64%·O2.5 70%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.3%

Match details

Group X

Mon, Jul 6 · 19:00 UTC

51% conf

Portugal

Elo 1995

Spain

Elo 2190

POR 37%Draw 19%ESP 44%

Portugal live

Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 8.7%

xG 1.54 – 1.71BTTS 63%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.7%

Match details

Group X

Fri, Jul 10 · 19:00 UTC

56% conf

Spain

Elo 2190

Belgium

Elo 1948

ESP 51%Draw 19%BEL 30%

Spain narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.7%

xG 1.83 – 1.33BTTS 60%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing75

Possession pref.84

Directness50

High line72

Set-piece threat74

Slug · spain