Belgium
UEFA · Group G
Belgium
Elo 1900 · 3.0% Champion
Tournament probabilities
Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.
Ratings
Ratings
Analyst brief — Belgium going into Global Cup 2026
Form
Generation regeneration — past peak with Lukaku/De Bruyne/Hazard fading, but Doku/Trossard/Tielemans still serviceable.
Style
Tedesco preferred a back-three; Garcia replaced him and reverted to 4-3-3 with high lines.
Squad
Courtois (when fit) is world-class; De Bruyne still the creative engine; Doku the wildcard.
Tournament ceiling
Quarter-final. Not the favourites they were in 2018-22.
Biggest risk
Defensive transitions — the high line under Garcia has shipped goals to direct counterattackers.
Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.
Group stage fixtures
Belgium
Elo 1948
Egypt
Elo 1742
Belgium narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-0 / 1-1 · top exact 9.5%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%
Match detailsBelgium
Elo 1948
Iran
Elo 1764
Belgium narrow edge
Most likely exact 1-0 at 12.3% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.4%
Match details
New Zealand
Elo 1534
Belgium
Elo 1948
Belgium dominant
Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 0-3at 8.2%
Match detailsBelgium
Elo 1948
Senegal
Elo 1816
Senegal live
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.0%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%
Match details
United States
Elo 1747
Belgium
Elo 1948
United States live
Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 10.2%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.2%
Match details
Spain
Elo 2190
Belgium
Elo 1948
Spain narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 9.7%
If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%
Match details