Iran

AFC · Group G

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Iran

Elo 1710 · 0.3% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo1710

Base rating73

Attack70

Midfield70

Defense76

Goalkeeper76

Set pieces68

Penalties70

Form70

Volatility60

Squad depth64

Injury status86

Data quality76

Ratings

Analyst brief — Iran going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Comfortable qualifying — solid defensive structure, but lack the attacking variety of Carlos Queiroz-era 2018.

Style

Compact 4-3-3, defensive-block, counter-driven.

Squad

Taremi the centre-forward; Azmoun if fit; Beiranvand in goal.

Tournament ceiling

Round of 16.

Biggest risk

Sociopolitical tension affecting squad cohesion.

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group G

Mon, Jun 15 · 01:00 UTC

46% conf

Iran

Elo 1764

New Zealand

Elo 1534

IRN 54%Draw 21%NZL 25%

Iran narrow edge

Most likely exact 1-0 at 15.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.56 – 0.93BTTS 46%·O2.5 46%

If it opens up: 3-0at 5.2%

Match details

Group G

Sun, Jun 21 · 19:00 UTC

50% conf

Belgium

Elo 1948

Iran

Elo 1764

BEL 52%Draw 20%IRN 27%

Belgium narrow edge

Most likely exact 1-0 at 12.3% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.67 – 1.12BTTS 53%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.4%

Match details

Group G

Fri, Jun 26 · 03:00 UTC

41% conf

Egypt

Elo 1742

Iran

Elo 1764

EGY 42%Draw 21%IRN 37%

Iran live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.5%

xG 1.42 – 1.31BTTS 53%·O2.5 51%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.6%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing62

Possession pref.50

Directness70

High line50

Set-piece threat68

Slug · iran