Iran vs New Zealand
Group G · Monday, June 15, 2026, 01:00 UTC · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
The model's read
Iran are clear favourites at 48%, against 24% for New Zealand and 28% for a draw. Goals project around 1.6–0.9 (both teams to score 46%, over 2.5 46%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Iran. Confidence sits at 46/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Iran win
48.3%
Draw
27.9%
New Zealand win
23.8%
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.93
Most likely exact score
1-0
top exact 1-0 · 15.0%
Confidence
46/100
Result lean
Iran narrow edge
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-0 at 5.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 15.0% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
40/100
Data quality
73/100
Uncertainty band
39 – 70%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Iran vs New Zealand.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:07 UTC.
Final (blended) home
48.3%
Final draw
27.9%
Final away
23.8%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market38 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel14 signals
- fundamental15 signals
Why this prediction
High-coverage prediction — most signal classes are present and aligned.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
73/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (20.9 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (16.9 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (14.5 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Iran win
47.9%
Draw
43.6%
New Zealand win
8.5%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Iran
12 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Iran (out — ruled out)
· Shoja Khalilzadeh's (out — ruled out)
New Zealand
2 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
45.8%
Over 1.5
69.0%
Over 2.5
45.5%
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Market intelligence
Model probability
48.3%
Market probability
50.2%
Gap: +4.0 percentage points.
Market confidence: 98/100 across 38 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Iran 54% to win, 25% for New Zealand, 21% draw. Expected goals: Iran 1.56 vs New Zealand 0.93. Most likely exact score is 1-0 at 15.0%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 1-0 / 2-0 / 0-1. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 46%). Likely one-goal game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 46/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- At least one side has high historical volatility, which broadens outcome ranges.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.