New Zealand vs Belgium
Group G · Friday, June 26, 2026, 03:00 UTC · Vancouver
The model's read
The model makes Belgium strong favourites at 69%, leaving 14% for New Zealand and 17% for the draw. Goals project around 0.9–2.2 in an open game (both teams to score 50%, over 2.5 59%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Belgium. Confidence sits at 57/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
New Zealand win
14.5%
Draw
16.7%
Belgium win
68.8%
Expected goals
0.87 – 2.17
Most likely exact score
0-1
top exact 0-1 · 12.0%
Confidence
57/100
Result lean
Belgium dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
0-3 at 8.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 12.0% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
23/100
Data quality
80/100
Uncertainty band
56 – 82%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. New Zealand vs Belgium.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 03:02:34 UTC.
Final (blended) home
14.5%
Final draw
16.7%
Final away
68.8%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market29 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel52 signals
- fundamental34 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
83/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
87/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (48.9 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (39.5 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (35.5 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 71)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
New Zealand win
1.0%
Draw
16.8%
Belgium win
82.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
73/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
New Zealand
2 articles / 14d
Belgium
50 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Belgium (out — out for several weeks)
· Amadou Onana (out — ruled out)
· World Cup (out — sidelined)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
49.7%
Over 1.5
79.0%
Over 2.5
58.5%
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Market intelligence
Model probability
14.5%
Market probability
10.2%
Gap: +5.2 percentage points.
Market confidence: 95/100 across 29 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Belgium 69% to win, 15% for New Zealand, 16% draw. Expected goals: Belgium 2.17 vs New Zealand 0.87. Most likely exact score is 0-1 at 12.0%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2. Goal environment open (BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 59%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 57/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- Belgium carry injury concerns into the match.
Uncertainty factors
- At least one side has high historical volatility, which broadens outcome ranges.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.