Brazil vs Morocco
Group C · Saturday, June 13, 2026, 22:00 UTC · New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
The model's read
Brazil are clear favourites at 46%, against 22% for Morocco and 33% for a draw. Goals project around 1.9–1.3 in an open game (both teams to score 58%, over 2.5 60%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Brazil. Confidence sits at 54/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Brazil win
45.7%
Draw
32.6%
Morocco win
21.7%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.25
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 10.1%
Confidence
54/100
Result lean
Draw-leaning
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.0% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 58% and Over 2.5 60% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
40/100
Data quality
88/100
Uncertainty band
40 – 67%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Brazil vs Morocco.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:21 UTC.
Final (blended) home
45.7%
Final draw
32.6%
Final away
21.7%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market44 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel59 signals
- fundamental50 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
82/100
Betting
77/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · market signal favours home (25.7 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (20.3 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (7.5 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
- · crowd signal is against home (-33.3 pp below uniform)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Brazil win
40.8%
Draw
38.6%
Morocco win
20.6%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Brazil
13 articles / 14d
Morocco
46 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
58.4%
Over 1.5
79.9%
Over 2.5
60.2%
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
45.7%
Market probability
59.1%
Gap: -5.5 percentage points.
Market confidence: 98/100 across 44 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Brazil 54% to win, 27% for Morocco, 19% draw. Expected goals: Brazil 1.86 vs Morocco 1.25. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 10.1%. Goal environment open (BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 54/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Notable gap: the market is markedly more bullish than the model. This often reflects public bias, late news, or sharp money the model has not yet incorporated.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.