Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B · Friday, June 12, 2026, 19:00 UTC · Toronto
The model's read
Canada are clear favourites at 46%, against 27% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 27% for a draw. Goals project around 1.5–1.3 (both teams to score 54%, over 2.5 53%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Canada. Confidence sits at 45/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Canada win
45.9%
Draw
27.0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
27.1%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.27
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 11.5%
Confidence
45/100
Result lean
Canada narrow edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.7% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
both teams likely to score; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
53/100
Data quality
81/100
Uncertainty band
30 – 61%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:19 UTC.
Final (blended) home
45.9%
Final draw
27.0%
Final away
27.1%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market44 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental11 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
74/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (19.1 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (12.0 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (3.9 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Canada win
37.3%
Draw
44.1%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
18.7%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Canada
106 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Balogun (out — red card)
· World Cup (out — red card)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
54.0%
Over 1.5
74.6%
Over 2.5
52.8%
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Market intelligence
Model probability
45.9%
Market probability
52.4%
Gap: -7.2 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 44 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Canada 45% to win, 34% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 21% draw. Expected goals: Canada 1.52 vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.27. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 11.5%. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 53%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 45/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model is slightly more cautious than the market.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.