Uruguay vs Cape Verde
Group H · Sunday, June 21, 2026, 22:00 UTC · Miami (Miami Gardens)
The model's read
Uruguay are clear favourites at 51%, against 25% for Cape Verde and 24% for a draw. Goals project around 2.0–1.1 in an open game (both teams to score 57%, over 2.5 61%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Uruguay. Confidence sits at 53/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Uruguay win
50.7%
Draw
24.0%
Cape Verde win
25.3%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.15
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0
top exact 1-0 · 10.3%
Confidence
53/100
Result lean
Uruguay narrow edge
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 6.6% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 57% and Over 2.5 61% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
34/100
Data quality
82/100
Uncertainty band
45 – 73%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Uruguay vs Cape Verde.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:10 UTC.
Final (blended) home
50.7%
Final draw
24.0%
Final away
25.3%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market38 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel15 signals
- fundamental32 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
77/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
81/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · market signal favours home (32.2 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (25.8 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (21.3 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 71)
- · crowd signal is against home (-19.7 pp below uniform)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Uruguay win
54.7%
Draw
36.3%
Cape Verde win
9.1%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
32/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Uruguay
11 articles / 14d
Cape Verde
4 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
57.4%
Over 1.5
80.6%
Over 2.5
61.2%
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
50.7%
Market probability
65.5%
Gap: -6.4 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 38 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Uruguay 59% to win, 23% for Cape Verde, 18% draw. Expected goals: Uruguay 2.01 vs Cape Verde 1.15. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0. Top exact 1-0 only 10.3%. Goal environment open (BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 61%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 53/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Notable gap: the market is markedly more bullish than the model. This often reflects public bias, late news, or sharp money the model has not yet incorporated.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.