Uruguay vs Spain
Group H · Friday, June 26, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Guadalajara (Zapopan)
The model's read
The model makes Spain strong favourites at 58%, leaving 19% for Uruguay and 22% for the draw. Goals project around 1.4–1.7 in an open game (both teams to score 61%, over 2.5 61%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Spain. Confidence sits at 53/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Uruguay win
19.3%
Draw
22.2%
Spain win
58.5%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.75
Scoreline cluster
0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1
top exact 0-1 · 9.3%
Confidence
53/100
Result lean
Spain clear edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.5% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 61% and Over 2.5 61% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
47/100
Data quality
91/100
Uncertainty band
34 – 61%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Uruguay vs Spain.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:11 UTC.
Final (blended) home
19.3%
Final draw
22.2%
Final away
58.5%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market32 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel30 signals
- fundamental49 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
73/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
76/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (46.7 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (24.2 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (14.2 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Uruguay win
2.6%
Draw
17.4%
Spain win
80.1%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
70/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Uruguay
11 articles / 14d
Spain
19 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Cucurella (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
60.5%
Over 1.5
80.4%
Over 2.5
61.1%
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 2.5
38.9%
Market intelligence
Model probability
19.3%
Market probability
18.2%
Gap: +14.7 percentage points.
Market confidence: 98/100 across 32 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Spain 48% to win, 33% for Uruguay, 19% draw. Expected goals: Spain 1.75 vs Uruguay 1.41. Scoreline cluster: 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1. Top exact 0-1 only 9.3%. Goal environment open (BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 61%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 53/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
Uruguay's aggressive press is well-suited to disrupt Spain's build-up.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.