Switzerland vs Canada
Group B · Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 19:00 UTC · Vancouver
The model's read
Switzerland are clear favourites at 54%, against 21% for Canada and 25% for a draw. Goals project around 1.8–1.3 in an open game (both teams to score 58%, over 2.5 60%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Switzerland. Confidence sits at 52/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Switzerland win
54.0%
Draw
25.5%
Canada win
20.6%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.25
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 10.3%
Confidence
52/100
Result lean
Switzerland narrow edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.0% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 58% and Over 2.5 60% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
41/100
Data quality
87/100
Uncertainty band
39 – 67%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Switzerland vs Canada.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:00:58 UTC.
Final (blended) home
54.0%
Final draw
25.5%
Final away
20.6%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market38 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel110 signals
- fundamental20 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
74/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
71/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (22.1 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (19.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (11.7 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: market vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Switzerland win
55.4%
Draw
35.0%
Canada win
9.5%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
33/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Switzerland
4 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Jhon Cordoba (out — ruled out)
Canada
106 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Balogun (out — red card)
· World Cup (out — red card)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
58.1%
Over 1.5
79.4%
Over 2.5
59.5%
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Market intelligence
Model probability
54.0%
Market probability
45.1%
Gap: +7.9 percentage points.
Market confidence: 95/100 across 38 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Switzerland 53% to win, 28% for Canada, 19% draw. Expected goals: Switzerland 1.83 vs Canada 1.25. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 10.3%. Goal environment open (BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 52/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model is slightly more bullish than the market.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.