Uruguay

CONMEBOL · Group H

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Uruguay

Elo 1900 · 2.8% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo1900

Base rating84

Attack84

Midfield80

Defense80

Goalkeeper80

Set pieces76

Penalties78

Form80

Volatility52

Squad depth78

Injury status86

Data quality88

Ratings

Analyst brief — Uruguay going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Bielsa's second cycle has stabilised — high-intensity performances in 2024 Copa, fearless against the giants.

Style

Vertical, aggressive, near-relentless press. Bielsa demands box-to-box runners and asks fullbacks to be auxiliary wingers.

Squad

Valverde dictates, Núñez & Pellistri lead the line, Araújo & Giménez form one of the best CB pairs on the planet.

Tournament ceiling

Semi-final realistic. Group stage handled, capable of upsetting one of the top seeds.

Biggest risk

Bielsa's style burns legs — a 6-game knockout run might leave the squad physically spent for the deep stages.

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group H

Mon, Jun 15 · 22:00 UTC

57% conf

Saudi Arabia

Elo 1596

Uruguay

Elo 1841

KSA 17%Draw 16%URU 68%

Uruguay dominant

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2 · top exact 10.4%

xG 0.98 – 2.25BTTS 54%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 0-3at 7.5%

Match details

Group H

Sun, Jun 21 · 22:00 UTC

53% conf

Uruguay

Elo 1841

Cape Verde

Elo 1619

URU 59%Draw 18%CPV 23%

Uruguay clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 10.3%

xG 2.01 – 1.15BTTS 57%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 3-1at 6.6%

Match details

Group H

Fri, Jun 26 · 00:00 UTC

53% conf

Uruguay

Elo 1841

Spain

Elo 2190

URU 33%Draw 19%ESP 48%

Uruguay live

Scoreline cluster 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.41 – 1.75BTTS 61%·O2.5 61%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.5%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing78

Possession pref.64

Directness65

High line65

Set-piece threat74

Slug · uruguay