Senegal vs Iraq
Group I · Friday, June 26, 2026, 19:00 UTC · Toronto
The model's read
The model makes Senegal strong favourites at 62%, leaving 16% for Iraq and 22% for the draw. Goals project around 1.8–1.0 (both teams to score 51%, over 2.5 53%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Senegal. Confidence sits at 50/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Senegal win
62.1%
Draw
22.1%
Iraq win
15.8%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.01
Projected score
1-0
top exact 1-0 · 12.9%
Confidence
50/100
Result lean
Senegal clear edge
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 5.8% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 12.9% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
37/100
Data quality
77/100
Uncertainty band
43 – 72%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Senegal vs Iraq.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:30 UTC.
Final (blended) home
62.1%
Final draw
22.1%
Final away
15.8%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market32 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental11 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
76/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
81/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (32.5 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (23.9 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (19.6 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Senegal win
53.0%
Draw
38.8%
Iraq win
8.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Senegal
27 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
51.0%
Over 1.5
74.8%
Over 2.5
52.9%
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Market intelligence
Model probability
62.1%
Market probability
65.8%
Gap: -8.5 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 32 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Senegal 57% to win, 24% for Iraq, 19% draw. Expected goals: Senegal 1.78 vs Iraq 1.01. Projected scoreline 1-0 (top exact at 12.9%). Goal environment moderate (BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 50/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.