Spain vs Cape Verde
Group H · Monday, June 15, 2026, 16:00 UTC · Atlanta
The model's read
The model makes Spain strong favourites at 70%, leaving 15% for Cape Verde and 16% for the draw. Goals project around 2.3–1.1 in an open game (both teams to score 57%, over 2.5 65%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Spain. Confidence sits at 61/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Spain win
69.9%
Draw
15.6%
Cape Verde win
14.5%
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.06
Scoreline cluster
2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0
top exact 2-1 · 9.8%
Confidence
61/100
Result lean
Spain dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 7.5% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 57% and Over 2.5 65% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
26/100
Data quality
85/100
Uncertainty band
55 – 78%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Spain vs Cape Verde.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 03:02:34 UTC.
Final (blended) home
69.9%
Final draw
15.6%
Final away
14.5%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market40 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel23 signals
- fundamental53 signals
Why this prediction
High-coverage prediction — most signal classes are present and aligned.
Technical
81/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
100/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours home (56.4 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (54.5 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (33.1 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Spain win
89.7%
Draw
9.7%
Cape Verde win
0.6%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
85/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Spain
19 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Cucurella (out — ruled out)
Cape Verde
4 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
57.3%
Over 1.5
83.3%
Over 2.5
65.2%
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
69.9%
Market probability
87.9%
Gap: -21.4 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 40 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Spain 66% to win, 18% for Cape Verde, 16% draw. Expected goals: Spain 2.29 vs Cape Verde 1.06. Scoreline cluster: 2-1 / 1-0 / 2-0. Top exact 2-1 only 9.8%. Goal environment open (BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 65%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 61/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
Cape Verde's direct attacking suits attacking Spain's high defensive line.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Notable gap: the market is markedly more bullish than the model. This often reflects public bias, late news, or sharp money the model has not yet incorporated.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.