Egypt vs Iran
Group G · Friday, June 26, 2026, 03:00 UTC · Seattle
The model's read
Egypt hold a narrow edge at 39%, with Iran at 30% and 31% for the draw. Goals project around 1.4–1.3 (both teams to score 53%, over 2.5 51%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Egypt. Confidence sits at 41/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Egypt win
39.0%
Draw
31.5%
Iran win
29.6%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.31
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 11.5%
Confidence
41/100
Result lean
Draw-leaning
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.6% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
both teams likely to score; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
58/100
Data quality
77/100
Uncertainty band
25 – 59%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Egypt vs Iran.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:27 UTC.
Final (blended) home
39.0%
Final draw
31.5%
Final away
29.6%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market30 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel20 signals
- fundamental25 signals
Why this prediction
High-coverage prediction — most signal classes are present and aligned.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
70/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (8.5 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (7.5 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 42)
- · learned signal is against home (-14.7 pp below uniform)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Egypt win
18.6%
Draw
45.8%
Iran win
35.6%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Egypt
8 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Egypt (out — ruled out)
Lineup signals
· Coach Hossam Hassan start
Iran
12 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Iran (out — ruled out)
· Shoja Khalilzadeh's (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
53.1%
Over 1.5
73.4%
Over 2.5
51.2%
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
39.0%
Market probability
40.8%
Gap: +1.0 percentage points.
Market confidence: 95/100 across 30 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Egypt 42% to win, 37% for Iran, 21% draw. Expected goals: Egypt 1.42 vs Iran 1.31. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 11.5%. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 51%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 41/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.