Turkey vs United States

Group D · Thursday, June 25, 2026, 02:00 UTC · Los Angeles (Inglewood)

Group D standings ← All matches

Turkey

38% · Elo 1852

1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

Scoreline cluster

United States

29% · Elo 1747

The model's read

Turkey hold a narrow edge at 38%, with United States at 29% and 34% for the draw. Goals project around 1.6–1.4 in an open game (both teams to score 59%, over 2.5 58%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Turkey. Confidence sits at 48/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.

Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.

Match outcome

oracle-v1.0.0

TUR 38%Draw 34%USA 29%

Turkey win

37.6%

Draw

33.9%

United States win

28.5%

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.41

Scoreline cluster

1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1

top exact 1-0 · 9.8%

Confidence

48/100

Result lean

Draw-leaning

Score band

Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game

Goal environment

Open

If it opens up — high-scoring alternative

2-2 at 6.3% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.

no exact score is dominant; BTTS 59% and Over 2.5 58% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp

Risk & uncertainty

Upset risk

50/100

Data quality

87/100

Uncertainty band

30 – 60%

Most likely scorelines

Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.

1–0

9.8%

1–1

9.0%

2–1

9.0%

0–1

8.7%

1–2

7.7%

2–0

6.4%

2–2

6.3%

3–1

4.9%

0–2

4.7%

1–3

3.6%

3–0

3.5%

3–2

3.4%

Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Turkey vs United States.

Team comparison

Rating profile across the key dimensions.

Ensemble breakdown

Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:35 UTC.

Final (blended) home

37.6%

Final draw

33.9%

Final away

28.5%

Source weights applied

technical38.5%
learned16.1%
market19.3%
crowd7.5%
external0.0%
intel8.6%
fundamental7.0%
sentimentMomentum3.0%

Source presence

technical1 signal
learned1 signal
market30 signals
crowd1 signal
externalnot used
intel86 signals
fundamental21 signals

Why this prediction

Coverage 83/100

Conflict 100/100

Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.

Technical

73/100

Fundamentals

83/100

Betting

70/100

Prediction market

94/100

Sentiment

0/100

Top positive drivers

· technical signal favours home (11.6 pp above uniform)
· learned signal favours home (2.7 pp above uniform)
· market signal favours home (1.3 pp above uniform)

Top risk drivers

· Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
· crowd signal is against home (-32.8 pp below uniform)
· Top outcome only 37.6% — very open match

Missing: external prediction sites

Learned model

In blend

The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.

TUR 36%Draw 43%USA 21%

Turkey win

36.1%

Draw

42.9%

United States win

21.0%

Total goals (λ)

2.50

Model confidence

30/100

Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.

Article intelligence

Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.

Turkey

1 article / 14d

Sentiment 19

Morale 0

United States

85 articles / 14d

Sentiment -12

Morale 0

Injury alerts

· Fifa (out — red card)

· The (out — red card)

· World Cup (out — suspended)

Net signal lean (home minus away): 68 · confidence 30%

Goals markets

BTTS yes

58.7%

Over 1.5

78.6%

Over 2.5

58.5%

Over 3.5

36.1%

Under 2.5

41.5%

Market intelligence

Mild divergence

Model probability

37.6%

Market probability

34.7%

Gap: +10.3 percentage points.

Market confidence: 99/100 across 30 bookmakers.

Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.

Explanation

Why the model sees the match this way.

Model prediction: Turkey 45% to win, 35% for United States, 20% draw. Expected goals: Turkey 1.63 vs United States 1.41. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1. Top exact 1-0 only 9.8%. Goal environment open (BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 58%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 48/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.

Factor contributions

TurkeyFactorUnited States

Overall strength

Recent form

Attack/defense balance

Expected-goals proxy

Squad depth

Injuries & suspensions

Travel, rest & weather

Tactical matchup

Tournament experience

Market calibration

Risk factors

United States carry injury concerns into the match.

Uncertainty factors

No major uncertainty flags.

Tactical read

No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.

Upset risk

High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.

Market divergence

Model and market are in close agreement.

These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.