Turkey

UEFA · Group D

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Turkey

Elo 1830 · 1.1% Champion

Tournament probabilities

Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.

Ratings

Elo1830

Base rating80

Attack80

Midfield78

Defense76

Goalkeeper78

Set pieces76

Penalties76

Form80

Volatility54

Squad depth74

Injury status84

Data quality86

Ratings

Analyst brief — Turkey going into Global Cup 2026

Editorial

Form

Montella has the team playing exciting football — Euro 2024 quarters proved the trajectory.

Style

Vertical, intense, transitions over possession. Arda Güler the future.

Squad

Arda Güler the jewel; Calhanoğlu the captain; Akaydın & Bardakcı the back.

Tournament ceiling

Round of 16, Quarter possible.

Biggest risk

Defensive lapses — the high tempo can lead to gaps Croatia and Portugal both exploited.

Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.

Group stage fixtures

Group D

Sat, Jun 13 · 04:00 UTC

49% conf

Australia

Elo 1795

Turkey

Elo 1852

AUS 29%Draw 20%TUR 50%

Turkey narrow edge

Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.0% (low dominance — distribution is flat)

xG 1.16 – 1.64BTTS 53%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.5%

Match details

Group D

Fri, Jun 19 · 03:00 UTC

48% conf

Turkey

Elo 1852

Paraguay

Elo 1814

TUR 51%Draw 20%PAR 30%

Turkey narrow edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%

xG 1.73 – 1.25BTTS 57%·O2.5 57%

If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%

Match details

Group D

Thu, Jun 25 · 02:00 UTC

48% conf

Turkey

Elo 1852

United States

Elo 1747

TUR 45%Draw 20%USA 35%

United States live

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 1-1 / 2-1 · top exact 9.8%

xG 1.63 – 1.41BTTS 59%·O2.5 58%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.3%

Match details

Tactical profile

Pressing70

Possession pref.68

Directness64

High line65

Set-piece threat74

Slug · turkey