Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B · Thursday, June 18, 2026, 19:00 UTC · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
The model's read
The model makes Switzerland strong favourites at 59%, leaving 18% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 23% for the draw. Goals project around 1.7–1.0 (both teams to score 48%, over 2.5 48%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Switzerland. Confidence sits at 54/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Switzerland win
59.1%
Draw
22.7%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
18.2%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.95
Projected score
1-0
top exact 1-0 · 14.3%
Confidence
54/100
Result lean
Switzerland clear edge
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-0 at 5.5% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 14.3% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
35/100
Data quality
84/100
Uncertainty band
42 – 69%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:20 UTC.
Final (blended) home
59.1%
Final draw
22.7%
Final away
18.2%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market37 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental10 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
77/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours home (37.5 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (26.6 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (22.5 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Switzerland win
70.8%
Draw
25.0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
4.1%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
56/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Switzerland
4 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Jhon Cordoba (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
47.6%
Over 1.5
71.3%
Over 2.5
48.3%
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Market intelligence
Model probability
59.1%
Market probability
59.9%
Gap: -4.1 percentage points.
Market confidence: 98/100 across 37 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Switzerland 56% to win, 24% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 20% draw. Expected goals: Switzerland 1.65 vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.95. Projected scoreline 1-0 (top exact at 14.3%). Goal environment moderate (BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 48%). Likely one-goal game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 54/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.