Group I

Projected table from Monte Carlo simulations, plus every group-stage fixture.

Projected standings

Averaged across all simulations.

#	Team	Pts	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Group W%	Adv %
1	France	6.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	7.0	3.0	3.9	63.3	92.1
2	Norway	4.3	1.2	0.6	1.1	5.1	5.0	0.1	19.2	68.7
3	Senegal	3.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	4.3	4.8	-0.5	14.4	62.0
4	Iraq	2.1	0.5	0.6	1.9	2.8	6.4	-3.6	3.1	27.2

Scenario explorer

Each fixture below shows the conditional outcome distribution.

Group I

Tue, Jun 16 · 19:00 UTC

59% conf

France

Elo 2163

Senegal

Elo 1816

FRA 64%Draw 17%SEN 20%

France clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 10.0%

xG 2.17 – 1.09BTTS 57%·O2.5 63%

If it opens up: 3-1at 7.1%

Match details

Group I

Tue, Jun 16 · 22:00 UTC

54% conf

Iraq

Elo 1561

Norway

Elo 1972

IRQ 21%Draw 17%NOR 63%

Norway clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 0-2 · top exact 9.8%

xG 1.14 – 2.18BTTS 59%·O2.5 64%

If it opens up: 1-3at 7.1%

Match details

Group I

Mon, Jun 22 · 21:00 UTC

66% conf

France

Elo 2163

Iraq

Elo 1561

FRA 79%Draw 12%IRQ 10%

France dominant

Scoreline cluster 2-0 / 3-0 / 1-0 · top exact 11.4%

xG 2.66 – 0.77BTTS 49%·O2.5 67%

If it opens up: 3-0at 10.1%

Match details

Group I

Mon, Jun 22 · 00:00 UTC

44% conf

Norway

Elo 1972

Senegal

Elo 1816

NOR 44%Draw 19%SEN 37%

Senegal live

Scoreline cluster 2-1 / 1-1 / 1-0 · top exact 8.6%

xG 1.77 – 1.60BTTS 64%·O2.5 65%

If it opens up: 2-2at 6.9%

Match details

Group I

Fri, Jun 26 · 19:00 UTC

59% conf

Norway

Elo 1972

France

Elo 2163

NOR 22%Draw 16%FRA 61%

France clear edge

Scoreline cluster 1-2 / 0-1 / 1-3 · top exact 9.3%

xG 1.31 – 2.32BTTS 64%·O2.5 70%

If it opens up: 1-3at 7.2%

Match details

Group I

Fri, Jun 26 · 19:00 UTC

50% conf

Senegal

Elo 1816

Iraq

Elo 1561

SEN 57%Draw 19%IRQ 23%

Senegal clear edge

Projected score 1-0 · top exact 12.9%

xG 1.78 – 1.01BTTS 51%·O2.5 53%

If it opens up: 3-1at 5.8%

Match details