United States vs Paraguay
Group D · Friday, June 12, 2026, 01:00 UTC · Los Angeles (Inglewood)
The model's read
United States hold a narrow edge at 44%, with Paraguay at 30% and 26% for the draw. Goals project around 1.6–1.3 (both teams to score 55%, over 2.5 54%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Paraguay. Confidence sits at 45/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
United States win
43.5%
Draw
26.3%
Paraguay win
30.2%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.28
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1
top exact 1-0 · 11.2%
Confidence
45/100
Result lean
Paraguay live
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.8% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 55% and Over 2.5 54% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
48/100
Data quality
83/100
Uncertainty band
31 – 62%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. United States vs Paraguay.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:19 UTC.
Final (blended) home
43.5%
Final draw
26.3%
Final away
30.2%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market44 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel113 signals
- fundamental36 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
73/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
72/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (14.9 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (12.9 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
- · learned signal is against home (-16.0 pp below uniform)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
United States win
17.3%
Draw
43.1%
Paraguay win
39.6%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
United States
85 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Fifa (out — red card)
· The (out — red card)
· World Cup (out — suspended)
Paraguay
28 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Paraguay (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
55.1%
Over 1.5
75.6%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
43.5%
Market probability
48.2%
Gap: -2.0 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 44 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: United States 46% to win, 33% for Paraguay, 21% draw. Expected goals: United States 1.57 vs Paraguay 1.28. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 1-1 / 0-1. Top exact 1-0 only 11.2%. Goal environment open (BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 45/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- United States carry injury concerns into the match.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.