United States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group X · Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC · San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
The model's read
United States are clear favourites at 55%, against 22% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 23% for a draw. Goals project around 1.5–1.2 (both teams to score 51%, over 2.5 50%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Bosnia & Herzegovina. Confidence sits at 47/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
United States win
55.4%
Draw
23.1%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
21.5%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.15
Most likely exact score
1-0
top exact 1-0 · 12.7%
Confidence
47/100
Result lean
United States clear edge
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.3% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 12.7% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
45/100
Data quality
83/100
Uncertainty band
33 – 63%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. United States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:38 UTC.
Final (blended) home
55.4%
Final draw
23.1%
Final away
21.5%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market46 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental15 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
73/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
100/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · market signal favours home (53.1 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours home (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (14.4 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (5.3 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs market disagree (conflict score 41)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
United States win
38.6%
Draw
44.0%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win
17.4%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
United States
85 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Fifa (out — red card)
· The (out — red card)
· World Cup (out — suspended)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
51.2%
Over 1.5
72.3%
Over 2.5
49.8%
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Market intelligence
Model probability
55.4%
Market probability
86.4%
Gap: -38.7 percentage points.
Market confidence: 63/100 across 46 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: United States 48% to win, 31% for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 21% draw. Expected goals: United States 1.51 vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.15. Most likely exact score is 1-0 at 12.7%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 50%). Likely one-goal game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 47/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- United States carry injury concerns into the match.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Notable gap: the market is markedly more bullish than the model. This often reflects public bias, late news, or sharp money the model has not yet incorporated.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.