France vs Morocco
Group X · Thursday, July 9, 2026, 20:00 UTC · Boston (Foxborough)
The model's read
The model makes France strong favourites at 60%, leaving 20% for Morocco and 20% for the draw. Goals project around 1.9–1.1 (both teams to score 54%, over 2.5 57%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring France. Confidence sits at 57/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
France win
59.9%
Draw
20.3%
Morocco win
19.8%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.10
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0
top exact 1-0 · 11.6%
Confidence
57/100
Result lean
France clear edge
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 6.1% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 11.6% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
35/100
Data quality
89/100
Uncertainty band
44 – 70%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. France vs Morocco.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:42 UTC.
Final (blended) home
59.9%
Final draw
20.3%
Final away
19.8%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel117 signals
- fundamental67 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
76/100
Fundamentals
82/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.4 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (30.0 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (23.7 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 92)
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
France win
63.3%
Draw
28.5%
Morocco win
8.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
45/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
France
71 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Isak Hien (out — ruled out)
Morocco
46 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
54.4%
Over 1.5
77.5%
Over 2.5
56.7%
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: France 57% to win, 24% for Morocco, 19% draw. Expected goals: France 1.86 vs Morocco 1.10. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0. Top exact 1-0 only 11.6%. Goal environment open (BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 57%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 57/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.