Croatia vs Ghana
Group L · Saturday, June 27, 2026, 21:00 UTC · Philadelphia
The model's read
The model makes Croatia strong favourites at 59%, leaving 19% for Ghana and 23% for the draw. Goals project around 1.8–1.1 (both teams to score 54%, over 2.5 56%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Croatia. Confidence sits at 53/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Croatia win
58.8%
Draw
22.7%
Ghana win
18.5%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.11
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 11.7%
Confidence
53/100
Result lean
Croatia clear edge
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-1 at 5.9% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 11.7% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
37/100
Data quality
83/100
Uncertainty band
42 – 70%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Croatia vs Ghana.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:34 UTC.
Final (blended) home
58.8%
Final draw
22.7%
Final away
18.5%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market32 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel33 signals
- fundamental17 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
75/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
75/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (34.7 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (22.4 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (21.2 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: market vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Croatia win
68.1%
Draw
27.2%
Ghana win
4.7%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
52/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Croatia
32 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Josko Gvardiol's (out — ruled out)
Lineup signals
· Rafael Leão drop
Ghana
1 article / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
54.2%
Over 1.5
77.0%
Over 2.5
56.0%
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Market intelligence
Model probability
58.8%
Market probability
54.5%
Gap: +1.3 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 32 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Croatia 56% to win, 25% for Ghana, 19% draw. Expected goals: Croatia 1.81 vs Ghana 1.11. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 11.7%. Goal environment open (BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 56%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 53/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.