Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Group K · Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 02:00 UTC · Mexico City
The model's read
The model makes Colombia strong favourites at 68%, leaving 13% for Uzbekistan and 19% for the draw. Goals project around 1.1–2.0 in an open game (both teams to score 55%, over 2.5 60%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Colombia. Confidence sits at 54/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Uzbekistan win
13.4%
Draw
18.9%
Colombia win
67.7%
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.01
Scoreline cluster
0-1 / 1-2 / 0-2
top exact 0-1 · 10.9%
Confidence
54/100
Result lean
Colombia dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
1-3 at 6.6% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 55% and Over 2.5 60% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
32/100
Data quality
79/100
Uncertainty band
47 – 74%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Uzbekistan vs Colombia.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:32 UTC.
Final (blended) home
13.4%
Final draw
18.9%
Final away
67.7%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market39 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental12 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
78/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
83/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (55.9 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (45.4 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (34.1 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (27.2 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Uzbekistan win
1.9%
Draw
19.4%
Colombia win
78.8%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
68/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Colombia
33 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Sanchez (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
55.5%
Over 1.5
79.6%
Over 2.5
59.7%
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Market intelligence
Model probability
13.4%
Market probability
11.9%
Gap: +9.9 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 39 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Colombia 61% to win, 21% for Uzbekistan, 18% draw. Expected goals: Colombia 2.01 vs Uzbekistan 1.08. Scoreline cluster: 0-1 / 1-2 / 0-2. Top exact 0-1 only 10.9%. Goal environment open (BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 60%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 54/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.