France vs Iraq
Group I · Monday, June 22, 2026, 21:00 UTC · Philadelphia
The model's read
The model makes France strong favourites at 84%, leaving 5% for Iraq and 11% for the draw. Goals project around 2.7–0.8 in an open game (both teams to score 49%, over 2.5 67%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring France. Confidence sits at 66/100 with low upset risk — the favourite's edge is broad-based.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
France win
84.0%
Draw
10.7%
Iraq win
5.4%
Expected goals
2.66 – 0.77
Scoreline cluster
2-0 / 3-0 / 1-0
top exact 2-0 · 11.4%
Confidence
66/100
Result lean
France dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
3-0 at 10.1% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
15/100
Data quality
85/100
Uncertainty band
68 – 89%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. France vs Iraq.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:29 UTC.
Final (blended) home
84.0%
Final draw
10.7%
Final away
5.4%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market36 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental50 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
93/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
100/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (60.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (58.5 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (50.9 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (45.2 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
France win
91.8%
Draw
7.7%
Iraq win
0.4%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
88/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
France
71 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Isak Hien (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
48.9%
Over 1.5
84.4%
Over 2.5
66.6%
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Market intelligence
Model probability
84.0%
Market probability
84.2%
Gap: -5.6 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 36 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: France 79% to win, 9% for Iraq, 12% draw. Expected goals: France 2.66 vs Iraq 0.77. Scoreline cluster: 2-0 / 3-0 / 1-0. Top exact 2-0 only 11.4%. Goal environment open (BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 67%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 66/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Low upset risk — the favorite has a clear, broad-based edge.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.