Iraq vs Norway
Group I · Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 22:00 UTC · Boston (Foxborough)
The model's read
The model makes Norway strong favourites at 72%, leaving 12% for Iraq and 16% for the draw. Goals project around 1.1–2.2 in an open game (both teams to score 59%, over 2.5 64%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Norway. Confidence sits at 54/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Iraq win
11.9%
Draw
15.8%
Norway win
72.2%
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.18
Scoreline cluster
1-2 / 0-1 / 0-2
top exact 1-2 · 9.8%
Confidence
54/100
Result lean
Norway dominant
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
1-3 at 7.1% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
no exact score is dominant; BTTS 59% and Over 2.5 64% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
30/100
Data quality
80/100
Uncertainty band
49 – 76%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Iraq vs Norway.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:29 UTC.
Final (blended) home
11.9%
Final draw
15.8%
Final away
72.2%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market40 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental35 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
79/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
93/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (45.9 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (45.0 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (29.3 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 89)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Iraq win
1.4%
Draw
19.4%
Norway win
79.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
69/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Norway
89 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Friendships (out — suspended)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
58.7%
Over 1.5
82.7%
Over 2.5
64.4%
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
35.6%
Market intelligence
Model probability
11.9%
Market probability
7.3%
Gap: +13.3 percentage points.
Market confidence: 97/100 across 40 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Norway 63% to win, 20% for Iraq, 17% draw. Expected goals: Norway 2.18 vs Iraq 1.14. Scoreline cluster: 1-2 / 0-1 / 0-2. Top exact 1-2 only 9.8%. Goal environment open (BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 64%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 54/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.