Tunisia vs Japan
Group F · Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:00 UTC · Monterrey (Guadalupe)
The model's read
Japan are clear favourites at 53%, against 22% for Tunisia and 25% for a draw. Goals project around 1.2–1.5 (both teams to score 50%, over 2.5 49%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Japan. Confidence sits at 48/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Tunisia win
21.8%
Draw
25.3%
Japan win
52.8%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.47
Most likely exact score
0-1
top exact 0-1 · 12.9%
Confidence
48/100
Result lean
Japan narrow edge
Score band
Likely one-goal game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 12.9% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
47/100
Data quality
81/100
Uncertainty band
32 – 62%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Tunisia vs Japan.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:25 UTC.
Final (blended) home
21.8%
Final draw
25.3%
Final away
52.8%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market36 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel29 signals
- fundamental17 signals
Why this prediction
High-coverage prediction — most signal classes are present and aligned.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
74/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours away (40.0 pp above uniform)
- · crowd signal favours away (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (19.6 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (13.3 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Tunisia win
3.0%
Draw
23.7%
Japan win
73.3%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
60/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Tunisia
1 article / 14d
Japan
28 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
50.5%
Over 1.5
71.5%
Over 2.5
48.7%
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Market intelligence
Model probability
21.8%
Market probability
19.7%
Gap: +12.2 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 36 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Japan 47% to win, 32% for Tunisia, 21% draw. Expected goals: Japan 1.47 vs Tunisia 1.15. Most likely exact score is 0-1 at 12.9%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 0-1 / 1-0 / 1-1. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 49%). Likely one-goal game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 48/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.