Sweden vs Tunisia
Group F · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 02:00 UTC · Monterrey (Guadalupe)
The model's read
Sweden are clear favourites at 48%, against 27% for Tunisia and 26% for a draw. Goals project around 1.3–1.3 (both teams to score 50%, over 2.5 47%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Sweden. Confidence sits at 39/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Sweden win
47.6%
Draw
25.6%
Tunisia win
26.8%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.28
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 12.2%
Confidence
39/100
Result lean
Sweden narrow edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Moderate
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
both teams likely to score; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
61/100
Data quality
76/100
Uncertainty band
22 – 56%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Sweden vs Tunisia.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:05 UTC.
Final (blended) home
47.6%
Final draw
25.6%
Final away
26.8%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market41 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental18 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
72/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours home (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours home (15.8 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours home (7.3 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours home (5.7 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Sweden win
40.6%
Draw
44.8%
Tunisia win
14.6%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Tunisia
1 article / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
49.9%
Over 1.5
70.2%
Over 2.5
47.2%
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Market intelligence
Model probability
47.6%
Market probability
49.1%
Gap: -10.1 percentage points.
Market confidence: 98/100 across 41 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Sweden 39% to win, 39% for Tunisia, 22% draw. Expected goals: Sweden 1.28 vs Tunisia 1.28. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 12.2%. Goal environment moderate (BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 39/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.