Curaçao vs Ivory Coast
Group E · Thursday, June 25, 2026, 20:00 UTC · Philadelphia
The model's read
Ivory Coast are clear favourites at 57%, against 23% for Curaçao and 21% for a draw. Goals project around 1.4–1.5 (both teams to score 57%, over 2.5 56%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Ivory Coast. Confidence sits at 43/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Curaçao win
22.8%
Draw
20.7%
Ivory Coast win
56.5%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.49
Scoreline cluster
0-1 / 1-0 / 1-1
top exact 0-1 · 10.1%
Confidence
43/100
Result lean
Ivory Coast clear edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.1% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 57% and Over 2.5 56% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
60/100
Data quality
82/100
Uncertainty band
25 – 57%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Curaçao vs Ivory Coast.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:24 UTC.
Final (blended) home
22.8%
Final draw
20.7%
Final away
56.5%
Source weights applied
- technical47.1%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel0.0%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market30 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intelnot used
- fundamental7 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
50/100
Betting
86/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (66.6 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (38.2 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (30.9 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (7.6 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: technical vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
Missing: external prediction sites · NLP intel (news-derived signals)
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Curaçao win
4.5%
Draw
31.3%
Ivory Coast win
64.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
46/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Ivory Coast
3 articles / 14d
Goals markets
BTTS yes
56.7%
Over 1.5
76.7%
Over 2.5
55.7%
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Market intelligence
Model probability
22.8%
Market probability
10.4%
Gap: +28.1 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 30 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Ivory Coast 41% to win, 38% for Curaçao, 21% draw. Expected goals: Ivory Coast 1.49 vs Curaçao 1.43. Scoreline cluster: 0-1 / 1-0 / 1-1. Top exact 0-1 only 10.1%. Goal environment open (BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 43/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Notable gap: the model believes the implied probability is higher than the market suggests. This can reflect data the market is under-pricing — or model over-confidence.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.