Qatar vs Switzerland
Group B · Saturday, June 13, 2026, 19:00 UTC · San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
The model's read
The model makes Switzerland strong favourites at 63%, leaving 11% for Qatar and 26% for the draw. Goals project around 0.9–2.0 (both teams to score 49%, over 2.5 56%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Switzerland. Confidence sits at 58/100 with moderate upset risk; the underdog has paths to a result.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Qatar win
11.1%
Draw
25.8%
Switzerland win
63.2%
Expected goals
0.89 – 2.02
Most likely exact score
0-1
top exact 0-1 · 12.8%
Confidence
58/100
Result lean
Switzerland clear edge
Score band
Favorite multi-goal edge
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
0-3 at 7.5% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
top exact score carries 12.8% probability
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
26/100
Data quality
82/100
Uncertainty band
53 – 78%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Qatar vs Switzerland.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 02:02:19 UTC.
Final (blended) home
11.1%
Final draw
25.8%
Final away
63.2%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market44 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel5 signals
- fundamental16 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
81/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
93/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours away (55.3 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (44.4 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (32.0 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
- · crowd signal is against away (-33.3 pp below uniform)
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Qatar win
0.5%
Draw
10.9%
Switzerland win
88.7%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
83/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Qatar
1 article / 14d
Switzerland
4 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Jhon Cordoba (out — ruled out)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
49.3%
Over 1.5
76.9%
Over 2.5
55.5%
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Market intelligence
Model probability
11.1%
Market probability
7.3%
Gap: +10.2 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 44 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Switzerland 65% to win, 18% for Qatar, 17% draw. Expected goals: Switzerland 2.02 vs Qatar 0.89. Most likely exact score is 0-1 at 12.8%, but no exact score is dominant — the score cluster is 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2. Goal environment open (BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 56%). Favorite multi-goal edge. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 58/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
Moderate upset risk — the underdog has identifiable paths to a result.
Market divergence
Model and market are in close agreement.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.