United States vs Belgium
Group X · Monday, July 6, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Seattle
The model's read
Belgium are clear favourites at 50%, against 25% for United States and 24% for a draw. Goals project around 1.3–1.7 in an open game (both teams to score 58%, over 2.5 58%). The biggest single factor is Overall strength, favouring Belgium. Confidence sits at 50/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
United States win
25.3%
Draw
24.5%
Belgium win
50.2%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.68
Scoreline cluster
0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1
top exact 0-1 · 10.2%
Confidence
50/100
Result lean
Belgium narrow edge
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 6.2% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
BTTS 58% and Over 2.5 58% both elevated; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
47/100
Data quality
89/100
Uncertainty band
33 – 62%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. United States vs Belgium.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:26 UTC.
Final (blended) home
25.3%
Final draw
24.5%
Final away
50.2%
Source weights applied
- technical57.8%
- learned16.1%
- market0.0%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- marketnot used
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel135 signals
- fundamental42 signals
Why this prediction
Partial coverage — some signal classes are missing.
Technical
73/100
Fundamentals
83/100
Betting
0/100
Prediction market
77/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · crowd signal favours away (34.8 pp above uniform)
- · learned signal favours away (30.3 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (14.3 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- No standout risks.
Missing: bookmaker market · external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
United States win
6.1%
Draw
30.3%
Belgium win
63.7%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
45/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
United States
85 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Fifa (out — red card)
· The (out — red card)
· World Cup (out — suspended)
Belgium
50 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· Belgium (out — out for several weeks)
· Amadou Onana (out — ruled out)
· World Cup (out — sidelined)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
57.9%
Over 1.5
78.3%
Over 2.5
57.9%
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Market intelligence
Market calibration unavailable.
No live odds have been ingested for this match yet.
Bookmaker prices typically populate closer to kickoff — when they do, this panel will show implied-probability consensus, the gap to our model and how the line is moving.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Belgium 48% to win, 32% for United States, 20% draw. Expected goals: Belgium 1.68 vs United States 1.33. Scoreline cluster: 0-1 / 1-2 / 1-1. Top exact 0-1 only 10.2%. Goal environment open (BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 58%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: overall strength difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 50/100. Moderate confidence; outcome is meaningfully uncertain.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- United States carry injury concerns into the match.
- Belgium carry injury concerns into the match.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.