Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Group E · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 23:00 UTC · Philadelphia
The model's read
It's finely balanced — Ecuador 37%, Ivory Coast 36% and 26% for the draw. Goals project around 1.4–1.4 (both teams to score 55%, over 2.5 53%). The biggest single factor is Injuries & suspensions, favouring Ecuador. Confidence sits at 41/100 but upset risk is high — variance and form keep the underdog live.
Auto-updated every hour as ratings, odds and news change.
Match outcome
oracle-v1.0.0
Ivory Coast win
36.2%
Draw
26.5%
Ecuador win
37.3%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.37
Scoreline cluster
1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1
top exact 1-0 · 10.8%
Confidence
41/100
Result lean
Very balanced
Score band
Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game
Goal environment
Open
If it opens up — high-scoring alternative
2-2 at 5.8% — most likely scoreline with 3+ goals total.
both teams likely to score; top three scorelines within 2 pp
Risk & uncertainty
Upset risk
60/100
Data quality
79/100
Uncertainty band
24 – 58%
Most likely scorelines
Top 12 from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson matrix.
Top 12 most likely scorelines. Heat is relative to the most likely outcome. Ivory Coast vs Ecuador.
Team comparison
Rating profile across the key dimensions.
Ensemble breakdown
Final probabilities blend the technical model with every available source layer. Persisted 2026-07-11 01:01:02 UTC.
Final (blended) home
36.2%
Final draw
26.5%
Final away
37.3%
Source weights applied
- technical38.5%
- learned16.1%
- market19.3%
- crowd7.5%
- external0.0%
- intel8.6%
- fundamental7.0%
- sentimentMomentum3.0%
Source presence
- technical1 signal
- learned1 signal
- market41 signals
- crowd1 signal
- externalnot used
- intel7 signals
- fundamental6 signals
Why this prediction
Source conflict detected — model confidence has been reduced.
Technical
72/100
Fundamentals
77/100
Betting
71/100
Prediction market
94/100
Sentiment
0/100
Top positive drivers
- · learned signal favours away (16.9 pp above uniform)
- · market signal favours away (7.5 pp above uniform)
- · technical signal favours away (4.9 pp above uniform)
Top risk drivers
- · Source conflict: learned vs crowd disagree (conflict score 100)
- · crowd signal is against away (-33.3 pp below uniform)
- · Top outcome only 37.3% — very open match
Missing: external prediction sites
Learned model
The learned model contributes to the public ensemble blend, alongside ratings, market signals and news intelligence. Performance is validated against an Elo baseline.
Ivory Coast win
9.6%
Draw
40.2%
Ecuador win
50.2%
Total goals (λ)
2.50
Model confidence
30/100
Logistic regression model — version wdl-v1, trained on 19k historical internationals.
Article intelligence
Recent news, injury alerts and sentiment extracted by the NLP layer.
Ivory Coast
3 articles / 14d
Ecuador
4 articles / 14d
Injury alerts
· (unknown) (out — red card)
Goals markets
BTTS yes
54.6%
Over 1.5
74.8%
Over 2.5
53.1%
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Market intelligence
Model probability
36.2%
Market probability
25.7%
Gap: +15.1 percentage points.
Market confidence: 96/100 across 41 bookmakers.
Odds shown for analysis only — CupCastLab does not place bets, list bookmakers, or recommend wagers.
Explanation
Why the model sees the match this way.
Model prediction: Ivory Coast 41% to win, 38% for Ecuador, 21% draw. Expected goals: Ivory Coast 1.43 vs Ecuador 1.37. Scoreline cluster: 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1. Top exact 1-0 only 10.8%. Goal environment open (BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 53%). Open 1-1 / 2-1 type game. Primary factor: injuries & suspensions difference is the dominant driver. Confidence: 41/100. This is a low-confidence call — uncertainty is wide.
Factor contributions
Risk factors
- No notable risk factors identified.
Uncertainty factors
- No major uncertainty flags.
Tactical read
No standout tactical mismatch — the stylistic edge is modest.
Upset risk
High upset risk — variance, tactical fit, or recent form suggests the underdog is live.
Market divergence
Model is slightly more bullish than the market.
These predictions are probabilistic and not guarantees. Not betting advice.