Netherlands
UEFA · Group F
Netherlands
Elo 1950 · 3.6% Champion
Tournament probabilities
Probability of reaching each round, from the Monte Carlo simulator.
Ratings
Ratings
Analyst brief — Netherlands going into Global Cup 2026
Form
Euro 2024 semi-final; Koeman has settled on a 4-3-3 with Reijnders + Schouten anchoring.
Style
Positional possession-based, deliberate buildup, Memphis Depay or Brobbey as false-nine option.
Squad
Van Dijk still the leader at the back; Frenkie de Jong the pivot when fit; Gakpo, Xavi Simons, Bergwijn the wide options.
Tournament ceiling
Semi-final. Has the structure to beat anyone, but goalscoring depth is a concern.
Biggest risk
Centre-forward output — Memphis is 32, Brobbey not yet proven at international level.
Editorial analysis from public reporting going into the tournament. Not betting advice. Not a guaranteed prediction.
Group stage fixtures
Netherlands
Elo 1971
Japan
Elo 1888
Netherlands narrow edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 1-1 · top exact 10.8%
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.9%
Match detailsNetherlands
Elo 1971
Sweden
Elo 1731
Netherlands clear edge
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0 · top exact 11.4%
If it opens up: 3-1at 6.5%
Match details
Tunisia
Elo 1562
Netherlands
Elo 1971
Netherlands clear edge
Most likely exact 0-1 at 12.7% (low dominance — distribution is flat)
If it opens up: 0-3at 6.1%
Match detailsNetherlands
Elo 1971
Morocco
Elo 1901
Morocco live
Scoreline cluster 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1 · top exact 11.5%
If it opens up: 2-2at 5.7%
Match details